The Columbus Crew dropped two points last week in a 1-1 draw at New York City FC. An unfortunate deflection took the Columbus backline by surprise and caught the Black & Gold out, allowing NYCFC to equalize in stoppage time.

Columbus’ next challenge is coming to Lower.com Field in the form of Nashville SC, a team that finds itself in second place in the Eastern Conference. This will be the Black & Gold’s first match without central midfielder Aidan Morris and forward Jacen Russell-Rowe, who are on international duty with the United State Men’s National Team and the Canadian Men’s National Team, respectively, at the Gold Cup.

There are a few questions about what Crew head coach Wilfried Nancy will do to fill the gap left by Morris, a regular starter, but one thing is clear, the Black & Gold will face a tough task without Morris on Saturday.

Oh, and Nashville is really good. Let’s dive into this game.

Nashville SC at a Glance:

Record: 10-5-4, 35points

League Form: L, W, D, W, W

Leading Scorer: Hany Mukhtar (13)

Assist Leader: Hany Mukhtar (6)

Player to Watch: Hany Mukhtar

Mukhtar is the best player on Nashville’s roster, and one of, if not the, best players in MLS. The league’s reigning MVP has not only maintained but improved his form in 2023.

There’s no limit to Mukhtar’s capabilities on the field. With the ability to act as a provider and a finisher, the playmaker/forward often finds himself with chances to do both throughout the course of any given match.

Mukhtar normally operates in the central attacking midfield with the ability to roam about the field wherever he can find space. This helps the German facilitate as his team breaks forward and also allows him to join attacks in whatever space develops as Nashville progresses the ball up the field. The 28 year old also excels in attacking transition because he has the ability to take on isolated defenders 1 v. 1, as well as make darting runs into open spaces.

When Mukhtar receives the ball with time and space in front of the goal, there is not much for opponents to do. Mukhtar’s dominance is perhaps best shown by some advanced statistics (aside from his 13 goals and six assists.) Mukhtar is in the 97th percentile for Attacking Contribution, which combines non-penalty kick shots and open-play chances created. He also leads Nashville in Expected Goals, Shots, Goals, Expected Assists and assists per 90 this season.

Needless to say, the Nashville attack flows through Mukhtar and the Black & Gold will need to limit his touches in order to slow down the 2022 MVP.

How Nashville SC plays: 

In some ways, Nashville has been the model of consistency in the MLS over the past few years. The team has made the MLS Cup playoffs in each year in the league, is usually at or near the top of their conference (Nashville has switched between the East and West) and is in contention in nearly every match. This is in large part due to Mukhtar, as discussed, but also due to head coach Gary Smith.

Smith has been at the helm of Nashville SC since the team’s inception and has done a good job building the group into what it is now. Nashville and Smith’s success is in large part due to the team’s playing style. 

Nashville is a good example of the old adage, “If you don’t give up a goal, you can’t be beaten.” While the team has evolved from this some, this was the core principle of Nashville’s first MLS team and has made them one of the tougher sides to beat in MLS.

Smith and Nashville routinely set up to ensure that the group is solid defensively, before thinking about the attack. In fact, Nashville has allowed the third-fewest goals and Expected Goals in the league this season. In addition to this, Nashville has the seventh-highest Passes Per Defensive Action in MLS, which means the team is happy to retreat to its defensive positions and allow the opponent to come to them. These metrics are consistent with Nashville’s identity under Smith, being tough to break down defensively while drawing the opponent out of position to exploit on the counter attack.

In possession, Smith and Nashville have continued to evolve in 2023. While it is far from some of the complex systems seen across the league, Nashville does have the ability to keep the ball and throw in some interesting wrinkles to break teams down.

Nashville is eighth-worst in the league in possession percentage, but is roughly middle of the pack in passes per sequence and sequence time, meaning they are capable of slowing it down and keeping the ball at times during matches. Typically, Nashville will keep the outside backs deeper to try and draw out the opponent and exploit 1 v. 1 opportunities in behind. Nashville has a lot of speed and strength up top that favors the side in these 1 v. 1 duels and in balls played in behind.

Despite being average in possession metrics, Nashville is next to last in Build Up Attacks or “the number of open play sequences that contain 10 or more passes and either ends in a shot or has at least one touch in the box.” This indicates that Nashville does struggle to create a lot of chances from possession and is much more effective attacking in transition. 

How the Crew can win:

This is an important match for the Black & Gold to keep climbing the Eastern Conference standings. Despite the challenges Columbus faces with Mukhtar and without Morris, the Crew should expect to be able to win this match at home. Here are a couple key areas for the Black & Gold to make sure they are able to take all three points.

1. Rest defense/defensive transition. This is the name of the game for this Columbus side and even more important against Nashville who loves to counter attack and get out in transition. The Crew will have the majority of the ball in this game and needs to make sure that the team’s rest defense is properly set up to allow the players to defend well in transition. This is of even more concern as Morris especially has the ability to clean up mistakes in this area. The Black & Gold need to be well set up to keep Mukhtar from getting out in transition.
2. Defend set pieces: Nashville killed the Crew on set pieces in the last meeting, scoring two goals from corners and winning the game. Nashville has the highest set piece Expected Goals in the league and will definitely be prepared for these moments against Columbus on the road. Goalkeeper Patrick Schulte and his defenders on set pieces will need to be prepared to deal with these moments in order to win Saturday.
3. Patient but persistent: Nashville will probably defend in a low block on the road, like in recent years. This has been particularly frustrating for the Crew who has struggled to beat Nashville at Lower.com Field. The Black & Gold will need to be patient when facing this low block to limit turnovers and frustration but will need to be persistent as well. In the past, Columbus has been lulled to sleep by this low block and has lost points at home as a result. On Saturday, the Crew will need to be persistent in the team’s efforts to break Nashville down in order to take three points.